信息通信技术（ICT）创新扩散及影响因素空间计量分析

本文运用2001—2018年全国288个地级以上城市统计数据,对信息通信技术(ICT)创新扩散及影响因素进行研究。首先采取改进的Bass模型来测算ICT创新扩散速度,然后构建ICT创新扩散及其影响因素的面板数据固定效应动态SAR模型,并采用拟极大似然估计法对动态SAR模型进行参数估计。研究表明:ICT创新扩散的时空效应显著,创新扩散不仅受本地影响还受邻近城市的影响;人口密度、人口流量、户均ICT消费支出及ICT供给能力等因素对其创新扩散有显著影响,且这些因素短期空间溢出效应和长期回流反馈效应显著。

Spatial econometric analysis on the diffusion of ICT innovation and its influencing factors

Based on the panel data of 288 cities in China from 2001 to 2016, this paper adopts improved Bass model and calculate the innovation diffusion of ICT. Then the paper constructs the fixed effect spatial econometric model, the quasi-maximum likelihood estimators is used to estimate the parameters of the spatial panel fixed effect SAR model. The main conclusions are as follows: the space-time effect of ICT innovation diffusion is significant. The innovation diffusion speed is influenced not only by local key factors, but also by neighboring cities and "neighbor to neighbor". Population density, population flow, consumer expenditure and ICT Supply Capacity have significant influences on innovation diffusion, and the short-term spatial spillover effect and long-term backflow effect of key factors is significant.