Technological progress and regress in pre-industrial times |
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| Authors: | Shekhar Aiyar Carl-Johan Dalgaard Omer Moav |
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| Institution: | (1) International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA;(2) University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark;(3) Hebrew University, Jerusalam, Isreal;(4) Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, Surrey, UK;(5) Shalem Center, Jerusalam, Isreal;(6) CEPR, London, UK |
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| Abstract: | This paper offers micro-foundations for the dynamic relationship between technology and population in the pre-industrial world,
accounting for both technological progress and the hitherto neglected but common phenomenon of technological regress. A positive
feedback between population and the adoption of new techniques that increase the division of labor explains technological
progress. A transient shock to productivity or population induces the neglect of some techniques rendered temporarily unprofitable,
which are therefore not transmitted to the next generation. Productivity remains constrained by the smaller stock of knowledge
and technology has thereby regressed. A slow process of rediscovery is required for the economy to reach its previous level of technological sophistication and
population size. The model is employed to analyze specific historical examples of technological regress.
Jared Diamond, Ten Thousand Years of Solitude, 1993.
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| Keywords: | Technological regress Technological progress Malthusian stagnation Division of labor |
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