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房地产价格波动与投机行为--对中国14城市的实证研究
引用本文:周京奎.房地产价格波动与投机行为--对中国14城市的实证研究[J].当代经济科学,2005,27(4):19-24.
作者姓名:周京奎
作者单位:南开大学,经济研究所,天津,300071
摘    要:本文首先构建了适合中国的房地产投机理论模型,然后利用该模型对中国14个城市房地产价格波动与投机行为的关系进行实证研究.对14城市的时间序列数据研究结果表明各城市房地产投机水平都很高,个别城市更加突出.通过对14城市的截面数据分析,可以看出可支配收入对房地产价格没有显著影响,这些城市房地产价格的上升,主要是由投机来推动的,而且整体投机度非常高,说明房地产价格极大的偏离长期均衡值,市场出现了非理性繁荣,政府和产业部门应该采取适当的措施,积极引导消费者和投资者,为建立均衡的房地产市场提供良好的宏观和微观环境.

关 键 词:房地产价格  投机  时间序列  截面数据
文章编号:1002-2848-2005(04)-0019-06
修稿时间:2005年3月10日

Real Estate Price Fluctuations and Speculative Behavior--an Empirical Analysis for Fourteen China Cities
ZHOU Jing-kui.Real Estate Price Fluctuations and Speculative Behavior--an Empirical Analysis for Fourteen China Cities[J].Modern Economic Science,2005,27(4):19-24.
Authors:ZHOU Jing-kui
Abstract:The paper firstly constructs a theoretical speculation model for China real estate. Then we investigate the relationships between real estate price and speculative behavior with data from 14 cities. It reveals that there is high speculative level in these cities based on time series data. Panel data analysis shows that there has not marketable effect of disposable income on real estate price, and the rising of real estate price is driven by speculative behavior. The overall high speculative level demonstrates that real estate prices deviate from the long-term equilibrium value and real estate market exuberance appears irrational. The policy makers and real estate sector should take proper actions to guide consumers and investors and establish favorable macro and micro environments for the real estate market.
Keywords:Real estate bubble  Speculation  Time series  Panel data  
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