人民币均衡汇率错位对进出口的影响——基于协整理论和二元选择模型的实证分析

本文基于协整理论，运用单位根检验、二步法、误差修正模型和二元选择Probit和Logit模型，对人民币均衡汇率错位对进、出口的影响进行了实证分析。本文的创新之处：在模型中引入了反映我国“二元经济结构”特征的三个控制变量——工农业对GDP的贡献度之差，城乡居民家庭恩格尔系数之差，第一产业和第二产业人口构成之差参与回归检验，显著性很强，使得模型更可信和稳定。结论表明：人民币均衡汇率错位对进、出口均有不同程度的负面影响，对进口的负面影响稍大于出口；人民币均衡汇率错位对进口向长期均衡水平的调整比出口更加有利；人民币均衡汇率高估错位幅度越大，越有利于进口；低估错位幅度越大，越有利于出口。

Impact of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignment on Imports and Exports-Empirical Analysis Based on Cointegration and Binary Choice Model

This paper uses unit root test,E-G two-step method,error correction model and binary choice Probit and Logit model to analyze the impact of RMB equilibrium exchange rate misalignment on imports and exports based on cointegration theory.The contribution is to introduce three control variants into the model which is the gap between the rural and urban residents and the labor number gap between the rural and urban.Conclusions show that RMB equilibrium exchange rate misalignment has significant negative impact on imports and exports,that imports have self-corrected dynamics better than exports,that the larger RMB equilibrium exchange rate misalignment is over-estimated,the less the exports hence the less net exports probability.