Innovation and social probable knowledge

In this paper, some elements of Keynes's theory of probabilityare used to understand the process of diffusion of an innovation.Based on work done elsewhere, it is argued that this processcan be viewed as a process of dealing with the collective uncertaintyabout how to sort out a technological problem. Expanding theconcepts of weight of argument and probable knowledge to dealwith this kind of uncertainty, we argue that the concepts ofsocial weight of argument and social probable knowledge canbe very helpful in understanding the process of diffusion ofan innovation.