中国工业部门碳排放与GDP脱钩因素影响力分析

基于Tapio脱钩模型，对2000．2008年间中国工业部门碳排放与能耗脱钩、能耗与GDP脱钩对碳排放与GDP脱钩影响力进行了实证研究。结果表明：中国工业部门在实现碳排放与GDP脱钩上取得比较显著的成绩；能耗脱钩影响力均值为正，能耗受经济驱动较小对碳排放与GDP脱钩做出了相当的贡献；排放脱钩影响力均值为负，碳排放受能耗驱动力较为明显，对工业部门碳排放与GDP脱钩产生了负向影响。为使中国工业部门在碳排放与GDP脱钩上取得更显著的效果，应加大能耗与GDP脱钩力度，同时政府应大力支持碳捕集利用与封存等低碳和零碳技术研发与应用，逐步改善碳排放与能耗整体挂钩的态势。

Analyzing the Influence on Decoupling Relationship between Carbon Emissions and GDP in China＇s Industrial Sector

Tapio decoupling method is used in this paper to quantitatively study how the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption, as well as the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and GDP, influence that between carbon emissions and GDP in China＇ s industrial sector from 2000 to 2008. The results of the analysis are as follows： first of all, in recent years China＇ s industrial sector has made certain progress in decoupling carbon emissions and GDP; secondly, energy decoupling has a positive influence on the average, as the lessening of energy consumption driven by GDP growth made a significant contribution to decoupling carbon emissions and GDP in China＇ s industrial sector; thirdly, emissions decoupling holds a negative influence on the average, since the carbon emissions were more significantly driven by energy consumption and thus against the decoupling between carbon emissions and GDP. To help China＇ s industrial sector gain better results in deeoupling carbon emissions and GDP, positive influence of the decoup｜ing between energy consumption and GDP should be increased on the one hand, while on the other hand, the government should strongly support low-carbon and zero-carbon technology R＆D and their implications, like the use and storage of carbon capture, gradually improving the overall state that carbon emissions are coupled with the energy consumption.