消费与经济增长的灰色关联度分析——以青海省为例

扩大消费需求是促进经济增长的主要途径,而居民消费又是消费需求的重要组成部分,本文以青海省为例研究居民消费对经济增长的影响.依据1990～2009间的数据对青海生产总值、居民消费支出和投资额以及净出口数据进行灰色关联分析,得到青海居民消费与生产总值的关联度为0.89057,投资与生产总值的关联度为0.739156.因此,居民消费比投资更能影响整个青海的经济增长.我们对青海居民消费现状分析发现,最终消费率在波动中呈下降趋势,消费需求是份额最大,最稳定的需求,最终消费内部呈现多样变化等特点.并在对青海省居民消费的现状及原因进行了分析的基础上,提出提出青海省促进居民消费拉动经济增长的政策建议.

Consumption and Economic Growth of Gray Correlation Growth Analysis——In Qinghai Province as an Example

Expanding consumption demand is the main way to promote economic growth,while the resident consumption is an important part of consumption demand,and therefore resident consumption is the first and foremost factor to consider when we study the economic growth in Qinghai province.Using Qinghai GDP,resident consumption,investment and net export data covering from 1990 to 2009 a total of 19 years and employ the gray correlation analysis,we get the correlation between resident consumption and GDP is 0.89057,while 0.739156 between the investment and GDP.Therefore,compared to the investment,the resident consumption is more important factor affecting entire Qinghai’s economic growth.We find,the rate of final consumption is declining,resident consumption demand is the largest and most stable demand,final consumption showed various changes in the internal.Based on the analysis of the current situation and the reasons of consumption in Qinghai province,we put forward policy recommendations to promote resident consumption and economic growth.