税收与二、三产业互动关系的实证研究——基于省际面板数据的PVAR估计

税收与经济的互动关系,一直是学界关注的热点话题,但从实证角度来分析二者之间的作用方向、反应强度、反应时滞的尚不多见。文章首先从理论上构建了税收与二、三产业之间的相互传导机制;然后以1994-2011年全国30个省市的年面板数据为基础,运用面板数据估计、格兰杰因果检验和面板向量自回归模型等方法,实证分析二、三产业与税收之间的互动关系。结果表明:二、三产业与税收互动关系明显;税收对二、三产业的调控作用显著,且对第三产业的调控作用更大;二、三产业对税收的影响具有滞后性,而税收对二、三产业的影响是即时的。最后,根据理论和实证分析结果,提出了若干结论和相应的建议。

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Tax Revenue and Secondary and Tertiary Industry---Based on Provincial Panel VAR

The interaction relationship between tax revenue and economy has been the topic in educational circles. But there are few researches analyzing the acting direction, the reaction strength, the time lag of reaction from the empirical perspective. Firstly, the paper constructs the transmission mechanism between tax revenue and secondary and tertiary industry from the theoretical perspective. Secondly , the paper analyzes the relationship between tax revenue and secondary and tertiary industry by the way of panel data, Granger causality and panel VAR on the basis of the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China in 1994-2011. The results show that the interaction between tax revenue and secondary and tertiary industry is clear. Tax revenue plays a greater regulation role in tertiary industry than that in secondary industry. There is a time lag in the effects of tax revenue on secondary and tertiary industry to tax revenue, but the effects of tax revenue on secondary and tertiary industry are immediate. Finally, according to the theory and empirical analysis results, this paper reaches some conclusions and corresponding suggestions.