我国金融风险预警指标体系研究

文章在综合国内外研究成果及我国国情的基础上，将金融风险的预警范围分为宏观经济环境、银行体系、经济泡沫、外部冲击以及债务影响等五个方面，具体选择了22项先行指标，构建了一个较为全面完整的金融风险预警指标体系，并采用AHP赋权法对我国金融风险状况进行综合评价。文章运用新构建的预警指标体系从长期、中期和短期三个不同的期限对我国现阶段金融体系的风险状况进行了实证检验，检验结果表明，无论是中长期还是短期，我国的金融体系都没有发出明显的金融风险预警，但是，也有不少指标处于不安全区域，最后，根据实证检验结果，提出了适当控制GDP的增长速度；防止经济从危机走向过热的另一个极端；努力缓解人民币汇率升值的压力；适当降低M2以及信贷发放规模这两项指标的增长率；适当控制国债规模等建议，从而使金融体系的风险降至最低。

Study on Financial Risk Warning Index System in Our Country

Taking the research achievements home and abroad and Chinese current situation into concern, the essay classifies the financial risk warning range into five aspects -macro-economic environment, bank system, economic bubble, external attack and debt effect, selects twenty-two leading indexes, and constructs an overall and complete warning index syetem, then uses the AHP endowing weight method to make a comprehensive evaluation on the state of financial risk in China. The essay also makes an empirical test on the state of financial risk in China from three different terms of long-term, mid-term and short-term, using the new- constructing warning index system. The result of the empirical analysis shows that there doesn＇t appear any financial risk warning in Chinese financial system no matter it is of mid-term, long-term or short-term. But there are also some indexes in the unsafe area, it doesn＇t mean they are all safe. In the end, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the finacial risk, such as controlling the the increasing speed of GDP, preventing economic from crisis to overheat, making great effort to relieve the pressure of Renminbi appreciation, decreasing growth rate of M2 and scale of loan, properly controlling sacale of national debt etc.