我国宏观税负的经济影响分析

一国的税收收入来源于经济,宏观税负与经济增长之间存在相互作用,而且这种相互作用不仅是当期的,更有长期的相互影响。因此,在对宏观税负的经济影响研究中,本文运用SVAR模型结合政府支出研究我国宏观税负与经济增长之间的动态关系,即宏观税负的经济增长效应,并使用脉冲响应函数和方差分解这两个工具,对变量之间的传递效应进行数量分析。文章随后还构建了四个SVAR模型,深入分析宏观税负的经济增长作用机制。研究发现,宏观税负通过投资、消费、进口和出口影响经济增长,其中降低宏观税负的刺激作用只有对投资才是长期有效的,宏观税负对消费、进口和出口的影响仅仅是短期显著。而且相比于增加政府支出对经济增长的正效应,降低宏观税负的效果短期不显著且长期不持续。

Analysis on the Economic Impact of China's Macro-tax Burden

There is interaction between economic and Macro-tax burden,and this interaction is not only in the current period but during the long-term. In this paper,we used the SVAR model to analyze the relationship among the macro-tax burden,government expenditure and the total output. And also,with impulse response functions and variance decomposition,we have done some quantitative analysis on the transfer effect among these variable. After that,four SVAR model have made to research the economic growth mechanism of Macro-tax burden. We have found that Macro-tax burden affects effects economic throngh investment,consumption,imports and exports. Among this factors,only investment has long-term reaction to the redution of Macro-tax burden. Other factors,like consumption,import and export,have short-term signicant responses. Meanwhile,compared to the postive economic growth effect from increased government spending,the effect of reducing tax burden is short-term,non-significance,and non-sustainable.