限购背景下存准率与房价的关系研究

2010年以来,我国主要的大中城市纷纷出台了商品房的限购政策,同期法定存款准备金率也多次调整.在限购政策背景下,本文运用广义矩(GMM)方法,将限购政策作为逻辑变量加入到估计模型中,对限购背景下的存款准备金率调整与商品房价格的关系进行了定量分析.结果表明,限购政策对于抑制房价过快上涨具有显著意义,同时,政府上调存款准备金率在滞后2期和3期时对于抑制商品房价格过快上涨也具有一定的积极作用,但商品房价格不会因存款准备金率的上调而出现急速下跌,而是在存款准备金率持续上调的过程中呈现出先上涨后下跌,再上涨、再下跌的交替变化特征.研究同时发现,限购政策和存款准备金率调整对于我国东部地区城市影响显著,而对于中西部城市影响则不显著.基于此,本文提出了运用存款准备金率手段在抑制商品房价格过快上涨过程中的对策建议.

Research on the Relationship between Deposit Reserve Ratio and the Price of Real Estate under the Context of the House Purchase Restriction

Since 2010,China’s large and medium-sized cities have introduced commercial housing restriction policy,over the same period the statutory deposit reserve ratio was adjusted several times.In background of the house purchase restriction policy,by applying the Generalized Method of Moments(GMM) method,this paper add an new variable to the estimated model of the deposit reserve ratio and real estate prices,the dummy variable of the house purchase restriction policy.The results show that the restriction policies has significantly curbed housing prices,and at the same time,in the lag 2 and 3,the government raised the deposit reserve ratio for the suppression of real estate prices rising too fast has a positive role.But real estate prices will not fall sharply after the deposit reserve ratio rises.Instead,in the process of raising the deposit reserve ratio,the prices continued to increase,then fall,then rise,and finally fall again.The study also finds that the purchase restriction policies and the deposit reserve ratio adjustment has significant impact to the eastern China city,but not significant to the central and western cities.Based on empirical results,this paper gives suggestions on how to suppress the real estate prices by using the deposit reserve ratio.