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CONTROLLING INFLATION WITH TIMID MONETARY–FISCAL REGIME CHANGES
Authors:Guido Ascari  Anna Florio  Alessandro Gobbi
Institution:1. University of Oxford, U.K.;2. Politecnico di Milano, Italy;3. Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Italy

We thank Luca Dedola, Martin Ellison, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Andrea Ferrero, Nobu Kiyotaki, Eric Leeper, Bartosz Mackowiak, Magali Marx, Chris Sims, Jouko Vilmunen, and Tao Zha for useful comments. We would also like to thank participants to the ECB-EABCN-FRB Atlanta conference on Nonlinearities in Macroeconomics and Finance in the Light of Crises in Frankfurt, December 15/16, 2014, to the first annual conference of the MACFINROBODS project in Paris, June 15–16, 2015, to the VI Workshop on Institutions, Individual Behavior and Economic Outcomes in Alghero, June 20–25, 2015, to the the Anglo-French-Italian Workshop on Macroeconomics in Milan, October 16–17, 2015, the Centre for Economic Growth and Policy Conference in Durham, May 15–16, 2016, the NBER Summer Institute 2017, and seminar participants at the University of Bern, Birmingham, Lausanne, Nottingham, Oxford, York, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Kansas City and New York, Bank of Finland and Riksbank. Gobbi received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) through grant agreement no. 612796 (MACFINROBODS).

Abstract:Can monetary policy control inflation when both monetary and fiscal policies change over time? When monetary policy is active, a long-run fiscal principle entails flexibility in fiscal policy that preserves determinacy even when deviating from passive fiscal, substantially for brief periods or timidly for prolonged periods. In order to guarantee a unique equilibrium, monetary and fiscal policies must coordinate not only within but also across regimes, and not simply on being active or passive, but also on their extent. The amplitude of deviations from the active monetary/passive fiscal benchmark determines whether a regime is Ricardian: Timid deviations do not imply wealth effects.
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