北部湾城市群自然资本利用状况、空间分析与驱动因素

以北部湾城市群为例用三维生态足迹模型、偏最小二乘法、空间计量模型分析了其自然资本利用状况、空间相关性、驱动因素。结论:(1)城市群自然资本利用处于不可持续状态;(2)自然资本利用程度划分为低、中、高三类,城市也相应分成三类;(3)自然资本利用的主要驱动因素是人口因素、社会经济;(4)空间分析显示全局莫兰指数为正,空间集聚显著,表明自然资本利用存在空间正相关;空间误差模型拟合度最好,并证明自然资本存量占用与人口总量正相关,与GDP总额负相关。

The Study of Status,Factors and Spatial Analysis of Natural Capital Utilization in the Beibu Gulf City Cluster

Taking the Beibu gulf city cluster as an example,this paper analyzes the utilization of natural capital stock and flow,driving factors and spatial correlation of the city cluster in the embryonic stage by using three-dimensional ecological footprint model,least square method and spatial measurement model.The research shows that:(1)The per capita ecological deficit in Beibu gulf city clusters continued to increase,and the utilization of natural capital was in an unsustainable state from 2006 to 2017;(2)According to the EF depth the cities are divided into three categories accordingly which are low,medium and high,with central cities which include Nanning,Zhanjiang and Haikou as their representatives;(3)the main driving factors of natural capital utilization are population factors and social economy;(4)the spatial analysis shows that the global Moran’s I value is positive,indicating the positive correlation of the whole region space.The Lisa diagram shows that the spatial agglomeration is significant;Regression shows that the spatial error model fits the best,and the footprint depth is positively correlated with the total population and negatively correlated with the total GDP.