山东省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合协调发展研究

通过构建新型城镇化与生态环境评价指标体系,借助综合评价模型、耦合协调度模型和面板数据模型等方法,探讨山东省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合协调的时空演变规律及影响机理。结果表明:(1)从综合发展水平来看,山东省新型城镇化和生态环境综合发展水平均逐年上升,但生态环境发展水平有所波动,两个子系统之间发展不平衡、不充分。(2)从协调发展水平来看,新型城镇化与生态环境的耦合协调度呈上升态势,总体处于初级协调阶段,协调度不高;耦合协调度由沿海向内陆递减,市域差距不断缩小;各地市新型城镇化发展水平整体表现为滞后型,研究时段后期,个别城市转为生态环境滞后型。(3)从影响因素来看,产业结构高级化、技术创新能力、经济发展水平和政府调控能力对两子系统的耦合协调具有一定的影响。

Study on the Coupling Development of New Urbanization and Ecological Environment in Shandong Province

Based on comprehensive evaluation model,coupling coordination model,panel data model and other methods,this paper discusses the coupling coordination degree and influence factors of new urbanization and ecological environment in Shandong Province,and realizes the time and spatial visualization.The results show that:(1)On the part of integrated level,the level of new urbanization and ecological environment is gradually rising,but the ecological environment fluctuates,the development of the two subsystems is unbalanced and insufficient.(2)On the part of the level of coupling coordination,the coupling coordination degree between new urbanization and ecological environment of Shandong Province has been improved,the study area is in the primary coupling coordination stage and the level is poor;the degree of coupling and coordination decreases from coastal to inland,and the gap between cities tends to narrow down.On the whole,the urbanization presents a lagging behind type in each city.In the later period,several cities have changed into the eco-environmental lag type.(3)On the part of influence factors,the industrial structure,technological innovation,the level of economic development,and capacity of the governments have a positive impact on the degree of coupling and coordination.