碳中和目标导向的省域消费端碳排放减排模式研究——基于多区域投入产出模型

文章以多区域投入产出模型为基础,研究了中国省级和行业层面基于消费端的碳排放及碳转移,并解析了碳中和导向下的碳减排模式。结果表明:23个省份本地消费碳排放大于外地输入碳排放;资本形成是碳排放最大贡献者;能源生产和供应业以及非金属和金属业是碳转移的主要行业,能源生产和供应业输出碳排放量最大的内蒙古主要输出给北方地区,非金属和金属业输出碳排放量最大的河北主要输出给江苏等省份;中国30个省份可以根据消费端碳排放的来源特征和净碳转移方向分为四类。在碳中和目标导向下,本研究有助于倒逼各省份绿色发展和绿色低碳产品的输出,绿色低碳也将是未来贸易市场趋向。

Carbon Neutrality Oriented Provincial Consumption-Based Carbon Emission Reduction Models:Based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output Model

Based on the multi-regional input-output model,this paper studies the consumption-based carbon emissions and carbon transfer at the provincial and sectoral levels in China,and analyzes the emission reduction model in the context of carbon neutrality.The results show that the carbon emissions from local consumption are greater than imported carbon emissions in 23 provinces.Capital formation is the largest contributor to carbon emissions.Energy production and supply and non-metal and metal industries are the main industries for carbon transfer.Inner Mongolia,which has the largest carbon emissions from energy production and supply,mainly exports carbon emissions to the northern regions;and Hebei,which has the largest carbon emissions from the non-metal and metal industry,mainly exports carbon emissions to Jiangsu.China’s 30 provinces can be divided into four categories based on the characteristics of the source of consumption-based carbon emissions and the direction of net carbon transfer.In the context of carbon neutrality,this study is helpful to push the provincial green development and the exports of low-carbon products.Green and low-carbon development will also be the trend of trade market in the future.