老龄化、资源依赖与技术创新——基于全球跨国面板的实证分析

选取全球87个国家2000—2016年的数据,分析了老龄化与资源依赖如何对技术创新产生影响,并运用工具变量二阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)进行了实证检验。研究思路主要基于人力资本这一传导机制,通过计量模型也证实了人力资本在老龄化、资源依赖与技术创新间的传导作用。研究结果表明:老龄化对技术创新并非阻碍作用,反而会促进一国技术创新发展。然而,资源依赖与大多数研究结论一致,会对技术创新带来消极影响。全球各国应该提高资源利用效率,防范自然资源依赖对人力资本投资的挤出效应,并且应注重人力资本投资,应对日益严峻的老龄化现象,提高区域技术创新水平。

Aging,Resource Dependence and Technological Innovation:An Empirical Analysis Based on Global Transnational Panel

This paper selects data from 87 countries in the world from 2000 to 2016 as research sample,and analyzes how aging and resource dependence affect technology innovation,and uses instrumental variable two-stage least squares(2SLS)to conduct empirical test.The research’s idea in this paper is mainly based on the transmission mechanism of human capital,and the econometric model also confirms the transmission of human capital between aging,resource dependence and technological innovation.The research results show that aging is not an obstruction to technological innovation,but promotes the development of technological innovation in a country;however,resource dependence is consistent with most research conclusions and will have a negative impact on technological innovation.This paper believes that countries around the world should take appropriate measures to increase human capital investment and introduce policies to cope with the increasingly severe aging phenomenon,and improve resource utilization efficiency,thereby improving the level of technological innovation in the region.