家庭消费碳排放影响因素及其变化趋势分析——以陕西省为例

以陕西省2003—2017年数据为样本,建立LMDI模型分析各因素对陕西省家庭消费碳排放的影响及其变化趋势。结果表明,家庭消费效应、住房面积效应和家庭规模效应是造成家庭碳排放上升的正向推动因素,而碳排放强度效应、消费抑制效应和居住密度效应对家庭碳排放具有负向影响;2003—2017年,碳排放强度效应呈“U”型变化趋势,家庭消费效应、家庭规模效应和住房面积效应呈上升趋势,消费抑制效应和居住密度效应呈下降趋势。政府制定碳减排政策时可从碳排放贡献率较大的家庭消费、住房面积和家庭规模等方面着手,有针对性地缓解日益增长的家庭消费碳排放。

Analysis on the Influencing Factors and Changing Trend of Household Consumption Carbon Emission:Take Shaanxi Province as an Example

Based on the data from 2003 to 2017 in Shaanxi Province,the LMDI model was established to analyze the impact of various factors on household consumption carbon emissions and its change trend.The results show that household consumption effect,housing area effect and household size effect are the positive driving factors for the increase of household carbon emissions,while carbon intensity effect,consumption inhibition effect and residential density effect have negative effects on household carbon emissions.From 2003 to 2017,the carbon intensity effect showed a"U"type trend,the household consumption effect,household size effect and housing area effect showed an upward trend,and the consumption inhibition effect and residential density effect showed a downward trend.When the government formulates carbon emission reduction policies,it can start from the aspects of household consumption,housing area and household size,which have a large contribution rate of carbon emission,to alleviate the increasing household consumption carbon emissions.