江苏居民消费碳排放测度与影响因素研究——基于GTWR模型的实证分析

基于CLA(消费者生活方式法)模型和ESDA模型对2009—2017年江苏省居民生活消费碳排放量进行测度与时空关联关系分析,构建OLS模型和时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型研究碳排放量的社会和经济影响因素,结果表明:研究期内居民生活消费碳排放量显著增长,并呈现苏南>苏中>苏北的空间格局;13个省辖市人均生活消费碳排放量Moran’s I指数从0.5267增长至0.5789,并呈现“HH”和“LL”的空间集聚特征;总体来看,人口密度、恩格尔系数和R&D占比对居民消费碳排放量有负向影响,而人均地区生产总值、第三产业占比和人均生活用电量对其有正向影响,且城市间各因素回归系数存在空间差异性。依据分析结论,提出提高第三产业能源利用率,倡导居民绿色生活和低碳消费等措施建议。

Study on Measurement and Influencing Factors of Household Carbon Emission in Jiangsu Province:An Empirical Analysis Based on GTWR Model

Based on CLA(consumer lifestyle approach)model and ESDA model,of from 2009 to 2017 the paper measures the carbon emissions of living consumption associated with spatial and temporal relation among residents in Jiangsu Province,and builds the OLS model and Space-time geographically weighted regression(GTWR)model to study the carbon emissions of social and economic influence factors.The results show that:The carbon emissions of living consumption increase significantly and appear the spatial pattern of“south of Jiangsu>middle of Jiangsu>north of Jiangsu”in space during the study period.The carbon emission Moran index of per capita living consumption in 13 provincial cities increased from 0.5267 to 0.5789,showing the spatial agglomeration characteristics of“HH”and“LL”.In general,population density,Engel’s coefficient and R&D ratio have a negative impact on residents’consumption carbon emissions,while per capita GDP,the proportion of tertiary industry and per capita electricity consumption have a positive impact,and there are spatial differences in the regression coefficients of various factors between cities.Based on the analysis,the paper puts forward some suggestions on improving the energy efficiency of the tertiary industry,advocating green life and low-carbon consumption.