中国新能源制氢潜力评价研究——基于31省份2017年和2030年的分析

使用SBM-Undesirable模型测算我国31省份的新能源制氢效率,从新能源制氢效率和新能源装机容量两个维度构建评价体系,再应用熵权评价法,对我国31省份的新能源制氢潜力进行分析,同时研究了新能源制氢潜力2017—2030年的变化情况。结果表明:风电制氢的效率明显高于光伏制氢;西北和华北地区的新能源制氢潜力明显高于其他地区;西北和华南地区存在新能源制氢潜力与加氢设施建设之间短期发展不均衡的现象;2030年我国各省份新能源制氢效率和潜力较2017年都有所提升。最后,依据评价结果提出改善我国氢能产业发展的对策建议。

Research about the Potential of Hydrogen Production from Renewable Energy in China:From 31 Provinces in 2017 and 2030

This paper uses the SBM model with undesirable output and the entropy method to analyze the potential of hydrogen production from renewable energy in 31 provinces of China,and studies the dynamic change of the potential from 2017 to 2030.The results show that the efficiency of the hydrogen production from wind power is significantly higher than that of the hydrogen production from photovoltaic;the potential of hydrogen production from renewable energy in the north is significantly higher than that in other regions;the potential of new energy hydrogen production and the development of hydrogenation facilities in the northwest and South China are uneven;the efficiency and potential of hydrogen production from renewable energy in China in 2030 are improved compared with that in 2017.Finally,according to the evaluation results,some suggestions are put forward to improve the development of China’s hydrogen industry.