生态系统服务的价格估计方法及真实增长测度

以国际统计规范中生态系统服务价值的估价方法为基础,利用市场价值法、替代成本法、影子工程法等方法,构建生态系统服务核算的动态价格体系,对京津冀地区的生态系统服务价值进行合理测度。实证结果发现,以往采用的价格体系低估了生态系统服务价值,根据构建的动态价格体系得出,2016年北京市、天津市和河北省的生态系统服务价值总量分别为27706.27亿元、5836.21亿元和104407.23亿元,分别是各地区GDP的1.08倍、0.326倍和3.26倍;2016—2017年京津冀地区生态系统服务价值增量分别为502.63亿元、628.12亿元和-1713.33亿元;三个地区中价格因素对北京市生态系统服务价值年度变化的影响最大,而天津市和河北省受到价格因素的影响较小,剔除价格因素影响后京津冀地区生态系统服务价值的真实增长率分别为-0.15%、13.11%和-1.7%。

Price Estimation Methods and Real Growth Measures for Ecosystem Service

The accounting of ecosystem service value is an important basis for government performance appraisal and economic-environmental policy formulation,and an effective path to promote sustainable development and ecological civilization construction.The establishment of dynamic price system is an indispensable part of ecosystem service valuation.Based on the valuation method of ecosystem services in the international statistical norms,this paper uses the market prices method,the replacement cost method,the shadow project method and other methods to construct a dynamic price system for ecosystem service accounting,and reasonably measures the value of ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The empirical results show that the price system of the original research underestimated the value of ecosystem services.According to the dynamic price system,in 2016,the total value of ecosystem services in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei was 2?770.627 billion yuan,583.621 billion yuan,and 10440.723 billion yuan,and it was 1.08 times,0.326 times,and 3.26 times of GDP in each region,respectively;From 2016 to 2017,the value of ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was 50.263 billion yuan,62.812 billion yuan,and-17.133 billion yuan,separately;The price factor has the greatest impact on the annual changes in the value of ecosystem services in Beijing,while Tianjin and Hebei are less affected by price factors.Excluding the impact of price factors,the real growth rates of ecosystem services in each region are-0.15%,13.11%,-1.7%.