基于改进生态足迹模型的耕地可持续利用研究———以怀来县为例

在总结以往生态足迹分析方法的基础上,提出了耕地可持续利用指数(CUSI),为定量评估耕地利用可持续发展状况提供了新的研究思路。以怀来县为例,研究结果表明:(1)1996～2008年间人均耕地生态足迹、生态足迹分别增加了0.0274hm2和0.1404hm2,耕地生态承载力则下降了0.1130hm2,耕地生态赤字增加说明耕地消耗量大于耕地供给量,耕地资源利用处于不可持续状况。耕地利用可持续程度由1996年的弱可持续阶段(0.01)向2008年的中等不可持续阶段(-0.31)发展。(2)通过对怀来县2011～2020年耕地生态足迹和生态承载力预测可知,到2020年该县人均耕地生态足迹、生态承载力分别为0.4821hm2、0.1387hm2,耕地生态赤字将达到0.3434hm2;CUSI为-0.55表明耕地利用处于强不可持续阶段,耕地保护形势不容乐观。

Study on Sustainable Utilization of Cultivated Land Resources Based on Improve Ecological Footprint Model:a Case of Huailai County

Based on the summary of ecological footprint analysis method,the paper put forward sustainable utilization index(CUSI) as the new research ideas of sustainable development status of cultivated land.This study took Huailai county as an example.The results showed that:(1) in 1996-2008,the ecological footprint,the ecological footprint of cultivated land respectively increased 0.027 4 hm2/person and 0.140 4 hm2 /person,cultivated land ecological carrying capacity 0.113 0 declined hm2/person,cultivated land ecological deficit increase consumption that is greater than supply,cultivated land resource utilization land is in an unsustainable situation.(2) by predicting cultivated land ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacitiny 2011-2020 by 2020,the county that cultivated land ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity 0.482 1 hm2 /person respectively,0.138 7 hm2/person farmland ecological deficit will reach 0.343 4 hm2/person;CUSI values for cultivated land use in that-0.55 strong unsustainable stage,protect arable land situation is not optimistic.