长三角城市群新型城镇化与生态效率耦合协调及驱动因素研究

随着我国迈入高质量发展阶段,城市可持续发展的一个重要难题就是城镇化与生态保护的协调问题。以长三角地区作为研究区域,利用熵权法和非期望产出SBM模型定量测度2005—2018年新型城镇化水平和生态效率;借助耦合协调模型,测度二者的时空格局及相对发展状态;通过构建Tobit模型,研究长三角地区新型城镇化与生态效率耦合的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)从综合发展水平来看,长三角地区新型城镇化、生态效率均呈上升趋势,但两个子系统之间发展不平衡;(2)从协调发展水平来看,长三角地区新型城镇化与生态效率的耦合协调度均值在0.38~0.72之间,整体处于上升趋势,经历了“拮抗—磨合—协调”三个阶段,且空间分异特征显著;研究阶段前期,发展水平多为新型城镇化超前,后期发展比例趋向均衡。(3)从驱动因素来看,资源聚集能力、经济发展水平、区域创新环境、社会促进能力对耦合协调度产生显著的积极影响,工业化水平及对外开放程度则对耦合协调度产生显著的负向影响,且地区间的驱动因素差异较为显著。

Coupling Coordination and Driving Factors of New-Type Urbanization and Ecological Efficiency in Yangtze River Delta Region

The crucial concern of urban sustainable development is the coordination between urbanization and ecological protection as China enters the stage of high-quality development.Taking the Yangtze River Delta region as the research area,this article use entropy weight method and non-expected output SBM model to measure the new-type urbanization level and ecological efficiency from 2005 to 2018.Through coupling coordination model,the spatial-temporal evolution characters and relative development state can be measured.By building the Tobit model,the driving factors of coupling between new-type urbanization and eco-efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta region were studied.The results show that:(1)From the perspective of comprehensive development level,both new-type urbanization and eco-efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta are on the rise,but the development between the two subsystems is unbalanced.(2)From the perspective of coordinated development level,the mean value of coupling coordination degree of new-type urbanization and ecological efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta region is between 0.38-0.72,and the overall trend is on the rise,experiencing three stages of“antagonism-running-coordination”,and the spatial differentiation characteristics are significant.In the early stage of the research,the development level is mostly ahead of the new urbanization,and the development proportion tends to be balanced in the later stage.(3)From the point of driving factors,resource aggregation capacity,economic development level,regional innovation environment and social facilitation capacity have significant positive effects on the coupling coordination degree,while industrialization level and openness degree have significant negative effects on the coupling coordination degree,and the main influencing factors are significantly different among regions.