广州城市生活垃圾增长与用地需求预测

采用线性回归、对数增长、固定比率增长和HP滤波趋势分析等方法对广州2010～2025年的城市生活垃圾及现有处理模式下的用地需求进行了预测。基于对广州未来城市人口基本将保持在1800万规模的判断,选取对数增长预测方法进行预测。结果表明,到2015年、2020年和2025年,广州中心城区终端垃圾处理量分别约为306万吨、320万吨和331万吨,在现有的以填埋为主的处理模式下,垃圾填埋的土地需求分别为407亩、426亩和441亩。

Forecasts of Guangzhou Municipal Solid Waste Growth and Land Use Demand

In this paper,linear regression,logarithmic growth,a fixed rate of growth and the HP filter trend analysis methods such as the Guangzhou 2010-2025 year of MSW and the current processing mode under the land requirement was predicted.Guangzhou,basically based on the future of the urban population will remain at 18 million to judge the size of this paper select the method of logarithmic growth forecasts.Projections indicate that by 2015,2020 and 2025,Guangzhou downtown terminal waste disposal were about 3.06 million tons,3.20 million tons and 3.31 million tons,with the existing landfill-based processing mode,the landfill demand for land in each of year is 407 acres,426 acres and 441 acres.