人口结构对农村居民消费率的影响分析——基于1995-2009年省际面板数据

研究中国人口结构对农村居民消费率的影响对刺激农民消费、扩大内需、推进经济转型,以及保障中国经济持续稳定增长具有重要意义.利用中国1995-2009年省际面板数据,运用普通固定效应回归、动态面板系统GMM估计和差分GMM估计方法进行比较,结果显示:由于农民消费的惯性和消费习惯的存在,纯收入增长率、消费价格指数变化率等对其消费率的贡献不显著,财政支农政策的影响仍然是有争议的,农村居民性别比的降低、家庭规模的缩小以及抚养比减少等人口结构的改变是现阶段中国各地区农村居民消费率持续走低的重要原因.

Demographic Structure’s Impact on Rural Residents’ Consumption:Based on——Baesd on the Inter-Provincial Panel Data from 1995 to 2009

To understand the factors that affect rural residents’ consumption is helpful to stimulate rural consumption,expand domestic demand,impel economic transition and guarantee economic growth of China.Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 1995 to 2009,the conclusions were revealed by applying and comparing estimating methods and results of Fixed Effects Model,Dynamic-panel System GMM and Difference GMM as followings.First,the growth rate of net income of rural households and the variance rate of consumer price index are not relevant to the consumption ratio of rural households because of the steady consuming habit of families in rural area.In addition,there still exists controversy about the influence from government expenditure for agriculture.Finally,the main reason of the drawdown of rural residents’ consumption is proved to be the changes of Demographic Structure including the decline of Sex Ratio,the diminution of Household Size,and the reduction of Dependency Ratio.