农村金融发展与农民收入增长:理论假说与实证检验

运用1981—2011年的相关数据,对我国农村金融发展与农民收入增长之间的关系进行实证检验,结果显示:从长期来看,农村金融发展规模、农村金融发展结构对于农民收入的增长具有促进作用,而农村金融发展效率却抑制了农民收入的增长;在短期内,农村金融发展规模和结构两个指标与农民收入增长之间没有明显的正向关系,而农村金融发展效率依然具有较为显著的抑制作用。Granger因果检验显示:农村金融发展规模和效率是农民收入增长的Granger原因,但是其反向的Granger因果关系不存在,脉冲响应函数得到同样结论。

Rural Financial Development and Farmers＇ Income Growth： Theoretical Hypothesis and Empirical Test

Using the related data of 1981-2011,this paper gives an empirical research on the relationship between rural financial development and farmers＇ income growth.The results showed that： In the long run,the rural financial development scale and structure have positive relation with the farmer＇s income increase,but the rural financial development efficiency is negative.In the short term,the rural financial development scale and structure are not important variable for promoting the farmers＇ income growth,and the rural financial development efficiency is still negative.Granger causality test found that the rural financial development scale and efficiency are Granger reasons of the farmers＇ income growth,but the farmers＇ income growth is not Granger reason of the development of rural finance,impulse response function confirms theses findings.