中国环境规制、技术创新与碳排放量关系的动态分析——基于脉冲响应函数和方差分解法

作为最大的发展中国家,我国面临着经济发展和节能减排的双重困扰,低碳经济模式成为实现可持续发展的重要途径。以1994—2009年中国环境规制、技术创新与碳排放量数据为依据,利用脉冲响应函数与方差分解法对环境规制、技术创新与碳排放量在外部因素冲击下的动态响应态势进行测算,结果表明:在10年的响应期下,环境规制强度与碳排放量之间在对方冲击下的响应曲线呈N型,技术创新能力与碳排放量之间的相互响应曲线为N型和倒U型;环境规制强度与技术创新能力之间的相互响应曲线都为N型。

Dynamic Research on Environmental Regulation,Technology Innovation and Carbon Emissions in China——Based on Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Method

Low-carbon economy mode has become the important pathway to realize the sustainable development while China is doubly troubled by economic development , energy saving and emission reduction,as the biggest developing country.In order to find out the dynamic evolution relationship, this paper describes the dynamic response path of environmental regulation, technology innovation, and carbon emissions due to external shocks through the impulse response functions and variance decomposition method by using the data of between the environmental regulation, technology innovation,and carbon emissions in China from 1944 to 2009. The result shows that：under the response periods of 10 years,the response curves between the strength of environmental regulation and carbon emissions are N-type under the other impulse. The response curves between the ability of technology innovation and carbon emissions are N-type and inverted U-shaped .The response curves betw~n the strength of environmental regulation and the ability of technology innovation are N-type.