中国2020年二氧化碳排放情景分析

本文利用中国科学技术信息研究所和美国千年研究所开发的中国可持续发展模型，对我国2020年的CO2排放情景进行定量分析，来模拟与验证如何达到2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40％～45％的减排目标。报告设定了技术进步、生活方式改变、价格调整、产业结构调整等几个情景。分析发现，如果要降低CO2排放总量，最好的途径就是加快技术进步、加大可再生能源和核电的比例。要实现二氧化碳排放强度的目标，最好的途径就是实现产业结构调整。

Scenario Analysis of China's 2020 CO2 Emissions

This article makes a quantitative analysis of China＇s 2020 CO2 emissions based on Sustainable Development Model made by Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China and Millennium Institute to simulate and verify how to reach the target of 40%-45% below 2005 levels by the year 2020. The article also sets up scenarios of technological progress, life style change, price adjustments and industrial restructuring. The analysis reveals that the best way to reduce CO2 emissions is speed up the technological progress, promote the ratio of renewable energy and nuclear power.