出口商品结构调整的实证分析

我国目前出口增速下滑是由于我国外贸已进入到一个调整阶段，进一步的经济增长不能靠单纯的数量扩张，只能靠结构的转变。只有进行外贸结构的调整，尤其是出口商品结构的调整，逐步由非熟练的劳动密集型产品为主向物质资本、人力资本密集型产品为主，乃至向技术与知识密集型产品为主转化，才能进一步加大外贸对我国经济增长的贡献，确保我国经济快速稳定增长。本文通过实证分析论证了出口商品结构与出口总额的相关关系，并在此基础上进行了我国出口商品结构调整的可行性分析。

Positive Analysis of the Adjustment of Export Commodities Structures

The lowering of current export growth rate in China is for the reason of foreign trade adjustment. The further increase of economy should not depend unilaterally on the expansion of volumes, but on the transformation of structrues. Only by adjusting foreign trade structure, especially adjusting the structure of export commodities, transforming labor intensive products into capital intensive products, and even into technology and knowledge intensive products, can we enhance foreign trade's contribution to China's economic development, and ensure the speedy and stable increase of the economy. The paper makes a positive analysis on the relations between the structures of export commodities and the general volume of exports, and studies the feasibility of adjusting China's export commodities structures thereafter.