中国地区经济趋异的非参数分析

本文采用AK模型和几何布朗运动建立了趋异分析的框架,并运用非参数分析方法,分别用一元和多元的核密度估计,对我国1978年以来的经济增长中的省际趋同模式进行了分析。结果表明,在我国的省级经济增长中,无法获得可信的,存在趋同趋势的数据支撑,我国各省的经济增长路径迄今还没有收敛的迹象,不同省份之间的增长率的差异也随着经济增长而扩大,甚至地区内的产出差距也在增加。论文还表明,我国各省区市之间也不存在俱乐部趋同的趋势。

On the Nonparametric Analysis of China's Regional Divergence

This paper explores an analytical framework of divergence based on AK model and geometric Brownian motion,and adopts the nonparametric approach,including univariate and multivariate kernel density estimation,to analyze the inter-provincial convergence pattern in China since 1978.The results indicate that we cannot obtain the support for the credible evidence of convergence in Chinese province-based growth.That is,there has not been the sign of the convergence in the province-based growth paths.Furthermore,the disparity of growth rate among provinces widens with the economic growth.So does the disparity of output even within a single region.We also demonstrate that the club convergence across Chinese provinces does not exist.