我国粮食价格变动的经济效应分析

粮食价格变动的经济效应体现为对粮食产量、农民收入、物价的影响。从粮食市场价格形成的机制看,成本与资源禀赋决定粮价的长期走势,中期以市场自发调节为基础,政府干预为主导。本文通过对粮价与粮食产量、粮价与农民收入、粮价与物价之间的协整性和格兰杰因果关系检验,得出结论:粮食价格上涨能显著地刺激粮食增产、短期内激励农民增收,统计意义上粮食市场价格上涨不会引起物价上升,政府要继续利用粮食价格手段支持粮食增产与农民增收。今年粮食等主要农产品价格上涨不是引起通胀的主要原因,不能轻率地抑制农产品价格。

Economic Effects of China' s Grain Price Fluctuation

Grain price fluctuation can affect the grain yield,the farmers’ incomes and CPI.Form the perspective of the grain price decision mechanism,grain price is determined by its cost and resource endowment in the long-run,while it is adjusted mainly by the market mechanism and governmental intervention.This paper tested Granger causality of the grain purchase price-yield,the grain sale price-farmers’ income,and the grain retail price-CPI.It found that the rising grain sale price has enhanced the grain yield and the farmers’ income in short-term,the grain retail price are not Granger cause CPI rising.Chinese government should support the farmers’ grain production and increase income with the lowest purchase price policy.The rising prices of the grain and other farm products are not the main causes of the inflation this year,so the government should not restrain them.