| 比较劣势产品出口受汇率变动影响的概率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晴.比较劣势产品出口受汇率变动影响的概率分析[J].财经科学,2007(1):112-118. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晴 |
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| 作者单位： | 厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系,厦门,361005 |
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| 摘 要： | 2005年7月人民币汇率制度改革后,人民币呈现出升值趋势.汇率的波动会影响贸易,一方面可能影响贸易收支,另一方面也会影响贸易结构.本文在前人研究的基础上,使用二元选择模型分析了我国1999年1月至2006年6月期间我国处于比较劣势的商品对日出口受汇率变动影响的概率,以此来反映人民币汇率变动可能对我国出口结构的影响,并提出相关建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 人民币汇率 比较劣势产品 二元选择模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-8306（2007）01-0112-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-12-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年12月8日 |
An Probability Analysis of the Influence of the Exchange Rate Change on the Export with Comparative Disadvantage |
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| Li Qing.An Probability Analysis of the Influence of the Exchange Rate Change on the Export with Comparative Disadvantage[J].Finance and Economics,2007(1):112-118. |
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| Authors: | Li Qing |
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| Abstract: | Since RMB exchange regime reform in July 2005, RMB began to appreciate. Change in exchange rate could have influence on foreign trade. On one hand, the influence on balance of trade, on the other hand, the influence on the structure of foreign trade. Based on former research, this paper used the Binary Choice Model to analyze the probability of the influence of the exchange rate change on the export with comparative disadvantage between China and Japan, from January 1999 to June 2006. By doing this research, we could know the influence of the exchange rate change on the structure of foreign trade, and give some advices. |
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| Keywords: | exchange rate of RMB comparative disadvantage Binary Choice Model |
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