我国经济增长与大气污染物排放的关系——基于分省面板数据的经验研究

本文应用1998-2004年期间我国30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,通过综合简化型模型,研究了3种大气污染物和经济增长之间的关系.实证研究发现在3种大气污染物与经济增长之间不存在倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线.二氧化硫排放与经济增长之间呈倒N型曲线,与多数研究结果不相符;同时,第二产业比重、经济增长速度、单位GDP能耗和环境政策强度四个解释变量总体上对3个大气污染物的排放具有显著影响,并包含明确的政策含义.

Panel Data Analysis on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Air Pollution in China

This paper analyses the relationship between eeonomical growth and three kinds of air ponutants in China by the mean of panel data analysis so as to construct panel data model on 30 provinces, with the statistics data from 1998 to 2004. We find no evidence that there lies upside - down U - shaped EKC curve, There is, however, an upside- down N- shaped curve between the emission of SO2 and economic growth, which differs from most other research findings. The industrial ratio, rate of economic growth, energy consumption per GDP, and enviromnental policy are significant in affecting the emission of the three air pollutants in general, and have policy implications.