经济基本面影响了住房消费吗——基于EG两步法和var模型的实证分析

本文搜集了1998年一季度到2008年一季度全国时序数据,对住房消费与收入、利率、失业率、房价等经济基本面因素进行了实证研究。首先用EG两步法证实了房地产市场中特有的量价齐升现象,这主要归因于房价的强烈上涨预期改变了居民住房消费行为。随后进一步证实了住房消费与包括收入、利率、房价在内的整个经济基本面之间存在着协整关系,认为目前我国房地产市场整体上还没有出现房地产泡沫。脉冲响应和方差分解的结果表明,在影响住房消费的经济基本面因素中,收入对住房消费的贡献率是越来越大的,而利率和房价的贡献是越来越小的。

Does Economic Fundamentals Affect Housing Consumption?-Empirical Analysis Based on the EG Two-step Method and VAR Models

This paper made an empirical study on the housing consumption and economic fundamentals factors from 1998Q1 to 2008Q1.By EG two-step method,it prove the unique phenomenon simultaneously rising of volume and price of the real-estate market which mainly results from the behavior of residents' housing consumption. We employ VAR model to further prove Co-integration existing between housing consumption and the economic fundamentals including income,interest rates,housing price. The result of impulse response an...