城市化对非农产业的溢出效应——基于面板VAR模型

本文基于内生增长理论,利用东中西部1998—2009年的数据和面板VAR方法考察了城市化对非农产业发展的溢出效应。结果发现:城市化的溢出效应在东中西部地区间是非均衡的,并成为拉大地区经济差距的重要原因。东部较高的城市化率通过人力资本积聚对非农产业产生显著溢出效应;中部城市化溢出不明显,其非农产业发展的动力主要来自于工业自身的累积循环效应;西部城市化溢出作用非常微弱,其产业发展模式呈显著资金推动特征。本文据此提出,中西部应采取更加主动的城市化政策来吸引人力资本集聚和技术进步,以更好实现经济增长的协调发展目标。

Spill-Out Effect Study of Urbanization on Non——Agricultural Industry-Based on Panel VAR Model

Based on the endogenous growth theory,this article studies the spillout effect of urbanization on eastern,middle and western areas' non-agricultural industry over the period 1998-2009.The result shows that the spill-out effect is significant in eastern region;the effect isn't distinct in middle area which depends much more on the original cumulative effect of the secondary industry,the effect is weak in west which has a significant character of money-push.Above all,the spill-out effect of urbanization on no...