中国寿险市场成长预测

近年来中国保险市场发展快速,其中以人寿保险市场的发展最为显着,而市场营收的成长更是惊人,2005～2008年平均复合成长率是23.9%。试用灰色预测理论GM(1,1)四期预测模型以及传统的回归模式对中国保险市场的人寿险销售量进行预测。研究发现,灰色预测模式适用于中国人寿险市场的预测,且以四期建构为最准确,结果的精确度均达90%以上,符合灰色理论强调少数据、小样本的预测特性;且GM(1,1)四期预测模型精确度高于传统的回归预测模式。

The Growth Forecast of Life Insurance Market in China

In recent years Chinese life insurance market is rapidly developing and the competition is internationalization.The development of life insurance is most significant. Revenue growth of the market are even more alarming, from 2005 to 2008 the average compound growth rate is 23.9 percent.This paper tried to theoretically predicting China's life insurance turnover by gray GM (1,1) with 4 period as well as traditional regression model.The paper found that gray prediction model for the forecasts of Chinese life ...