我国货币政策对经济发展贡献的实证研究

为了对我国货币政策等综合因素对经济发展的贡献作用展开分析与研究,采用国家统计局和相关部门公布的关于货币供应、经济发展总量、黄金价格、美元对人民币汇率等综合信息作为分析的基础数据(整个基础数据的时间跨度为1995年至2011年)。通过对上述数据的综合分析,从宏观层面对我国经济发展、货币供应等综合因素有了一个较为全面的认识。在此基础上,针对上述数据,利用计量经济学理论与方法,采用Eviews6.5分析工具,确定了人民币汇率、居民消费价格指数、黄金价格、上证指数、M2对中国经济发展存在统计学意义上的因果关系,由此确定了VAR模型的最终形式。基于该VAR模型,确定了中国货币政策等综合因素对经济发展的滞后周期为两个自然月。最后,针对上述VAR模型展开深入研究,为我国经济稳定、持续、高效的发展提出了明确的政策建议。

The Research About the Contribution of Monetary Policy to the Economic Development in China

In order to Chinaese monetary policy and other factors of the contribution to economic development role in the unfolding of analysis and research,the National Bureau of statistics of China and the related department announced on the money supply,economic growth,the price of gold,U.S.dollar against the RMB exchange rate and other comprehensive information as the basis for analysis of data(the basic data for the time span from 1995 to2011).Based on the above data comprehensive analysis,from the macro level with Chinese economic development,the money supply and other factors to have a comprehensive understanding of.On this foundation,in view of the above data,by using the econometric theory and methods,using Eviews6.5analysis tools,determine the RMB exchange rate,consumer price index,the price of gold,the Shanghai Composite Index,the M2 measure of money supply in Chinaese economic development a statistically significant causal relationship,thus to determine the final form of VAR model.Based on the VAR model,has determined the Chinese monetary policy and other factors on the lagging of economic development cycle for two month.Finally,according to the VAR model research,for the Chinese economic stability,continuously,efficient development the paper put forward specific policy recommendations.