Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour |
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Institution: | 1. Compass Lexecon, Spain;2. University of the Basque Country, Spain;3. Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain;4. University of Pablo de Olavide, Spain |
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Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effect of local exposure to COVID-19 on voting behaviour and electoral outcomes using evidence from the regional elections held in Spain on 12 July 2020. Exploiting the variation in exposure to COVID-19 and using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that turnout was between 2.6 and 5.1 percentage points lower in municipalities that experienced positive cases of COVID-19. In addition, the results show a substantial increase in the probability of voting for nationalist parties. We discuss the idea of perceived fear being the potential mechanism driving our results. |
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Keywords: | COVID-19 Elections Voting behaviour Turnout Vote share D70 D72 D91 |
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