The influence of recession and income strata on consumer demand for protein sources

Though meat products are considered the primary sources of protein in the U.S., people consume a variety of protein sources including meat, fish, eggs, dairy products and beans. This study expands the typical meat demand study by including alternate protein sources. We implement state-space modelling and Bai-Perron tests to examine structural change in U.S. expenditure patterns on protein sources across pre- and post-recessionary periods. Results are integrated into a Time-Varying Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) including beef, pork, poultry, fish and seafood, eggs, dairy products, dried beans, and an ‘other meat’ composite. Expenditure elasticities generally become relatively more elastic post-recession for protein sources across all income quintiles, with the largest changes in beef and pork. The lowest income group exhibits the least change in own-price and in expenditure elasticities, likely an indication of already limited flexibility.