| 政策不确定性的宏观经济后果 |
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| 引用本文： | 金雪军,钟意,王义中.政策不确定性的宏观经济后果[J].经济理论与经济管理,2014,34(2):17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金雪军 钟意 王义中 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江大学经济学院，杭州310027 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大招标项目（10zdand034）；国家社会科学基金项目（12CJY115）；浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目“之江青年课题”（11ZJQN037YB） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采取贝克的政策不确定性指数，运用FAVAR方法分析政策不确定性冲击对中国宏观经济的影响。经验结果发现，政策不确定性冲击对GDP、投资、消费、出口和价格变动会带来负向影响，导致实际有效汇率贬值，促使股票价格和房地产价格下跌。同时发现，政策不确定性作用于宏观经济的主要机制为预期渠道。该结论表明，政府应当尽量保持宏观经济政策的稳定性和持续性，并加强引导公众合理预期。
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| 关 键 词： | 政策不确定性 FAVAR模型 政策不确定性指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-09-22 |
MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POLICY UNCERTAINTY |
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| JIN Xue-Jun,ZHONG Yi,WANG Yi-Zhong.MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POLICY UNCERTAINTY[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2014,34(2):17. |
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| Authors: | JIN Xue-Jun ZHONG Yi WANG Yi-Zhong |
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| Institution: | School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper adopts policy uncertainty index proposed by Baker and uses FAVAR model to analyze the impact of policy uncertainty on macroeconomic of China. Empirical results show that policy uncertainty has negative impact on GDP, investment, consumption, export and price, decreases real exchange rate and leads to a drop in stock price and real estate price. Besides, this paper finds the mainly mechanism of policy uncertainty effect on macroeconomic is expected channel. This conclusion suggests the government should keep macroeconomic policy as steady and continuous as possible and strengthen guidance of public rational expectation. |
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| Keywords: | policy uncertainty FAVAR model policy uncertainty index |
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