资本账户自由化、信贷扩张与系统性银行危机风险*

本文研究在资本账户自由化下，信贷扩张与资本流入对于系统性银行危机风险的影响。利用89个国家1973—2016年的长面板数据，并控制影响银行危机风险多项因素后，研究发现资本账户自由化有助于降低银行危机风险。进一步研究发现，FDI流入能显著降低银行危机风险；适量的股权投资流入有助于增强银行业稳定性；但当股权投资大量流入时，伴随着信贷过度扩张和资产泡沫，银行危机风险急剧增加；较低的债权投资流入对银行业稳定性无显著影响，但当超过一定规模时，银行危机风险显著增加。

CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION,CREDIT BOOM AND SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISIS

This paper studies the impact of credit boom and capital inflows on systemic banking crisis under capital account liberalization. Using long panel data from 1973 to 2016 of 89 countries and controlling multiple factors that affect the risk of bank crisis, this paper finds that capital account liberalization helps reduce the risk of bank crisis. Further research finds that FDI inflows can significantly reduce the risk of bank crises; the appropriate amounts of equity investment inflows can help enhance the stability of the banking sector, but when large amounts of inflows are accompanied by excessive credit expansion and asset bubbles, the risk of bank crisis increases dramatically; when the inflow of debt investment is low, there is no significant impact on the stability of the banking sector, but when it exceeds a certain scale, the risk of banking crisis increases significantly.