我国货币政策区域效应的度量与成因分析

本文利用时变参数状态空间模型估计了1985—2007年我国(及主要区域)的动态货币政策乘数,从新的视角论证了货币政策区域效应的显著存在性。此外,还从供给视角对货币政策区域效应的成因做了新的解释。研究表明,经济开放度、劳动生产率对货币政策区域效应有显著的正向影响,而地方政府行为对货币政策区域效应有显著的负向影响,这说明地方政府干预经济过多反而会削弱货币政策效力。

REGIONAL EFFECTS OF THE MONETARY POLICIES IN CHINA:MEASURES AND INTERPRETATION

In this paper,the authors provide an estimation of China's(and her major regional) dynamic monetary policy multipliers in 1985—2007 using time-varying state-space model parameters,and demonstrate the significant existence of regional effects of China's monetary policies.Moreover,beyond the traditional interpretation from the aspects of demand,the authors try to explain the existence of the regional effects of monetary policies from the supply perspective.Empirical analysis shows that difference in the degree of openness of economy and labor productivity has significant positive impacts on the regional effects of monetary policies,while local governments' behavior has a significant negative impact on the monetary policy multiplier.This means that excessive intervention of local governments weakens the effects of monetary policies.