延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。

THE OPTION BETWEEN SKIP GENERATION RAISING AND LABOR PARTICIPATION IN DELAYED RETIRING AGE POLICY——Based on Stochastic Wage Earnings#br#

Skip generation raising may crowd out the effect of delayed retiring age policy on promoting labor supplyIn order to verify the crowding out effect，this paper firstly stimulates the changes of welfare due to early retirement of the female people who are approaching retiring age through building their life cycle model includes consumption of them and their adult children who have infants under the assumption of stochastic wage earningsThis paper uses micro data of CHIP to estimate the growth rate of earning and earning risk for different education and occupation groupsThe results are applied to CHARLS data so as to provide evidence consistent with the model predictions，which include that the female people approaching retiring age who expect a lower growth rate or higher risk of earnings are more likely to choose early retirement when they confront grandchildren care needs，and after institutional retirement，their labor participation is more affected by adult childrens growth rate of earningIt also means that crowding out effect will be produced by skip generation raising on delayed retiring age policy promoting female labor supply