市场一体化、非对称性贸易成本与制造业集聚*

国内市场一体化将会对中国制造业的空间分布造成何种影响？本文通过构建统一的理论分析框架验证了国内市场一体化影响制造业集聚的两种机制：其一是贸易成本总体水平的调节效应，其二是贸易成本非对称性的直接效应，而调节效应的方向则取决于模型理论范式选择。此外，本文基于中国区域间投入产出数据，系统地测算了中国地区间的非对称双边贸易成本，并基于测算结果进行回归分析。实证结果表明，在中国制造业发展初期，市场结构总体符合IRS MC范式设定，此时贸易成本的调节效应倾向于促进制造业在东部沿海区域集聚。伴随着制造业生产技术的成熟，制造业市场结构开始呈现CRS PC范式特征，此时市场一体化对制造业集聚的调节效应不再显著。

MARKET INTEGRATION,ASYMMETRIC TRADE COSTS AND MANUFACTURING AGGLOMERATION

How will domestic market integration affect spatial distribution of manufacturing? By building a unified model, this paper discusses about two mechanisms of the effect of domestic market integration One is by lowering overall trade barriers The other is by changing the asymmetric of trade costs The model shows that, theoretical paradigms make significant impact on equilibrium results Based on the theoretical model and Chinese inter regional input output tables, this paper firstly measures the asymmetric bilateral trade costs between Chinese regions and conduct related regression analysis systematically The results show that, at the initial stage of Chinese manufacturing development, its market structure consists with IRS MC model, which means the falling overall trade barriers promote manufacturing agglomeration However, with the development of manufacturing, its market structure stars to present the characteristics of the CRS PC model, when falling trade barriers doesnt significantly increase production share in Eastern Coastal Region At this time, the asymmetry of trade barriers is beneficial to manufacturing in western and middle areas, so domestic market integration may even contribute to spatial decentralization of manufacturing