双边政治关系、制度质量与中国对外直接投资*

本文利用中国与其他国家在联合国大会决议的投票行为作为双边政治关系的代理变量，以中国对89个国家2003—2015年对外直接投资数据为样本，分析了双边政治关系对中国对外直接投资的影响。研究表明：整体而言，中国的对外直接投资会受到双边政治关系的显著影响，政治关系的亲密有利于中国对外直接投资的增加。东道国制度质量可以降低中国对外直接投资对双边政治关系的敏感度，且制度质量的调节只能在中国对比自己制度质量高的国家投资时发挥作用。以2008年为分界点，后危机时代双边政治关系对投资的影响更加显著，双边政治关系的经济效应也会显著地受到东道国制度质量的调节。此外，中国改善与“一带一路”沿线国家的政治关系，可以促进中国的对外直接投资。

BILATERAL POLITICAL RELATIONSHIP,INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY AND CHINAS OFDI

Using the United Nations general assembly voting data of China and other countries as the proxy variable of bilateral political relationship, this paper investigates the influence of bilateral political relations on Chinas foreign direct investment with the flow data of Chinas OFDI to 89 countries from 2003 to 2015. The empirical results show that Chinas foreign direct investment will be significantly affected by bilateral political relationship. The closeness of political relationship is conducive to the increase of Chinas OFDI. The quality of host country institution can reduce the sensitivity of Chinas OFDI to bilateral political relationship, and the regulation of institution quality can play a role only when Chinas OFDI tend to invest in those countries with higher institutional quality than China. Furthermore, the influence of bilateral political relationship on investment is even more pronounced in the post crisis era and the economic effects of bilateral political relations will also be significantly regulated by the host countries institutional quality during this period. In addition, improving political relations with countries along the “One Belt and One Road” can promote Chinas OFDI.