制度差异、“一带一路”倡议与中国大型对外投资——基于投资边际、模式与成败的三重视角

本文基于2005—2016年中国609个企业2 440个大型对外投资微观样本，全面考察正式与非正式制度差异对企业投资边际、模式与成败的影响。研究发现：正式制度差异对投资规模化的影响不大，但显著影响投资多元化。企业为了避免正式制度差异带来的管理风险，倾向于选择全资股权结构，但企业选择绿地投资还是跨国并购并不受到正式制度差异的影响。相比之下，非正式制度差异的影响更为广泛。无论是正式制度差异还是非正式制度差异，均会显著增加企业投资的失败概率。进一步研究发现，“一带一路”倡议主要对正式制度差异存在优化互补效应。研究结论表明，夯实“一带一路”倡议，尤其大力发展与沿线国家的文化深度交流，有助于企业更快、更好地走出去。

INSTITUTIONAL DIFFERENCES, “THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE” AND CHINAS LARGE SCALE OUTWARD FOREIGN INVESTMENT——Based on a Perspective of Investment Margins,Modes and Failure

Based on the 2440 large scale foreign investment samples of 609 enterprises in China from 2005 to 2016, this paper examines the impact of formal and informal institutional difference on the outward foreign investment margins, modes and performance The results show as follows Formal institutional difference has little influence on the scale of investment, but it has a significant impact on the diversification of investment In order to avoid the management risk brought by formal institutional difference, enterprises prefer to choose full ownership structure However, whether enterprises choose greenfield investment or cross border mergers and acquisitions is not affected by formal institutional difference In contrast, the impact of informal institutional difference is more extensive Both formal and informal institutional difference will significantly increase the probability of failure of outward foreign investment This paper also finds that “the Belt and Road Initiative” can mitigate the risks brought by formal institutional difference The conclusion shows that it is necessary to deepen “the Belt and Road Initiative”, especially to develop the cultural exchanges with the countries along the Belt and Road, to help enterprises to go outward faster and better