地方财政行为是否驱动了中国贸易 收支的动态调整*——基于异质性动态调整模型的分析

本文利用1997-2013年中国省际层面的面板数据，借助异质性动态调整模型从动态视角考察了地方财政行为对中国贸易收支调整速度的影响。研究结果显示：（1）平均而言，在地方财政行为的驱动下，中国实际贸易收支向最优水平动态调整的速度约为0045。总体表明，地方财政行为对中国贸易收支的驱动性影响较弱，引致实际贸易收支向最优水平调整的速度也较为缓慢。（2）财政支出分权的强化会制约贸易收支的调整速度，贸易收支调整呈现“相对惰性”。财政收入分权的提高和预算内财政支出的扩张能够加快实际贸易收支向最优贸易收支调整的速度，助力贸易收支实现平滑调整。预算外财政支出和财政收入的变化对调整速度则不会产生显著性影响。（3）贸易收支的调整速度呈现显著的区域异质性。本文的结论表明，现阶段中国要实现贸易收支的平衡调整路径，中央及地方政府必须把握好财政行为与贸易收支的动态联动关系。

DOES REGIONAL FISCAL BEHAVIOR DRIVE THE DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT OF CHINA' S TRADE BALANCE

Utilizing provincial panel data from 1997 to 2013, this paper constructs a heteroscedastic dynamic adjustment model to test the impacts of regional fiscal behavior on the dynamic adjustment of Chinas trade balance. The empirical results show as follows. Firstly, the adjustment speed of trade balance is nearly 0045 which driven by regional fiscal behavior. Obviously, the impact of regional fiscal behavior is somehow low. Secondly, both of fiscal revenue decentralization and extra budgetary expenditure can increase adjustment speed of trade balance. However, fiscal expenditure decentralization will reduce adjustment speed while fiscal revenue and budgetary expenditure exert no efforts on adjustment speed. Thirdly, the effects of adjustment speed have significant regional heterogeneity. Therefore, Chinas dynamic coordinated development issues in terms of regional fiscal behavior and trade balance should be considered.