人民币汇率变动对产业结构 影响的实证研究*

汇率作为重要的价格信号，能影响我国参与国际分工的成本，改变我国生产要素的相对价格，引导国内资源的重新配置，并对我国产业结构的调整产生重要影响。本文从三次产业结构调整和不同要素密集度行业结构调整两个角度展开分析，分别研究人民币有效汇率对其影响。其中，从三次产业结构调整的角度，对国家和地区层面进行实证研究，结论表明人民币有效汇率变动对第二产业具有明显的抑制作用，而对第三产业发展具有促进作用，且对经济发达的东部地区的影响明显大于对中西部地区的影响；从资源配置的角度，以劳动力、资本要素在产品市场和要素市场的流动为切入点，对汇率变动影响产业结构变化的机理及其路径进行了深入系统的理论研究，结论表明，人民币有效汇率对资本密集型行业和技术密集型行业具有促进作用，且实际有效汇率的影响大于名义有效汇率的影响。\

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH OF THE CHANGE OF EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE ON INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE EFFECT

As an important price signal, the exchange rate can affect the countrys participation in international division of labor, change the relative price of a countrys factor production which leads to a new allocation of domestic resources, and influence countrys industrial structure adjustment. Based on the three industry structure adjustments and different factors intensive industry restructuring, this paper studies the effect of the RMB effective exchange rate respectively. In analyzing the three industrial structure adjustments, from the national and regional levels, the empirical results show that the effective exchange rate of the second industry adjustment has obvious inhibitory effect, and has a role in promoting development of the third industry. The economic developed eastern area has a significantly greater influence than the midwest. Using labor and capital in the product market and factor market as the breakthrough point, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of exchange rate, and concluded that the effective exchange rate of capital intensive industries and technology intensive industries have promoting effect, and the influence of the real effective exchange rate is greater than the nominal effective exchange rate.