投资消费结构影响因素及合意投资消费区间——基于跨国数据的国际比较和实证分析

本文分析了投资消费结构影响因素,并对我国的合意投资消费区间进行了匡算。在文献综述基础上,本文对投资消费结构影响因素进行了国际比较,利用跨国面板分析、中国协整分析,佐证国际比较相关判断,并匡算我国合意投资消费区间。结果表明:经济发展阶段及城市化水平、经济外向型程度、地域及文化传统、经济体制等都对投资消费结构有显著影响;综合这些因素,我国当前合意的投资率和消费率区间为40%～45%和55%～60%;当前投资消费结构明显失衡,实施经济刺激政策应兼顾优化投资消费结构。

INFLUENCING FACTORS OF INVESTMENT-CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE AND DESIRABLE INVESTMENT-CONSUMPTION INTERVAL——Empirical Study Based on Cross-Country Data

Factors of investment-consumption structure are analyzed in this paper with the desirable investment-consumption structure for China evaluated as well. Based on literature review, international comparison is made between these factors, with panel data analysis and co-integration analysis using Chinese data as verification. It comes out that:(1) Economic development stages, urbanization level, degree of dependence on foreign trade, region and cultural tradition and economic regime all have significant impact...