“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国国家风险评级与对策研究

为了使中国企业在“走出去”的过程中合理识别和评估东道国的国家风险，提高国家间投资合作的效率，本文以中资企业对外投资中面临的国家风险为主要研究对象，构建了中国对外直接投资国家风险评价体系。从投入产出角度，运用超效率DEA模型与Malmquist指数相结合的分析方法，从静态与动态的时间角度对2014—2018年“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家风险进行实证分析。研究发现：从静态层面看，中南亚区域呈现较高的国家风险，我国应加强与东道国联系，重点关注东道国投资环境的变化；欧洲地区特别是中东欧国家更适合中国企业对外投资，合作规模有待进一步扩大；西亚地区投资风险两极分化，我国应密切关注高风险国家投资风险的隐患，并建立相应的补偿机制。从动态层面看，通过Malmquist指数分析可知，研究年份间“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家风险在逐步改善，国家管理的整体趋势向着良好的方向发展。基于分析结果，本文提出了相关的政策建议。

RISK RATING AND COUNTERMEASURE RESEARCH OF COUNTRIES ALONG THE SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT

In order to improve the efficiency of investment cooperation with host countries,this paper builds a risk evaluation system for China's outward foreign direct investment and uses the input oriented super efficiency DEA model from the perspective of input and output.The analysis method that combines with the Malmquist index conducts an empirical analysis of risks in the countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” from 2014 to 2018.The result shows that,from a static perspective,Central and South Asian countries present a higher level of investment risk.China should focus on the improvement of the host country's domestic investment environment.European countries,especially those in Central and Eastern Europe,are more suitable for Chinese companies to invest overseas,and the scale of cooperation should be further expanded.The investment risks of West Asian countries are polarized.China should pay close attention to the hidden risks of investment risks in high risk countries,and establish necessary compensation mechanisms.From a dynamic perspective,according to the analysis of the Malmquist model,the risks in the countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” are gradually improving and the overall trend of national management is developing in a good direction.Based on the analysis results,this article puts forward relevant policy recommendations.