房地产税、市场结构与房价

本文在住房流量模型的基础上，构建了一个购房者和开发商的住房市场局部均衡模型，考察了完全垄断和完全竞争情形下房地产税与房价之间的关系。结果表明，无论何种市场结构，提高房地产税均导致房价下降；住房市场垄断性越强，房价越高，房地产税对房价影响越大。笔者对1996-2008年中国33个大中城市数据的检验发现，市场结构对房价影响大于房地产税。房地产税增长率每增加1%，房价增长率将减少0.03%；勒纳指数每增加1%，房价增长率将增加0.16%。房地产税与市场结构相互作用将使房价上涨，但影响微不足道。因此，对住宅开征房地产税，将对房价上涨有一定限制作用，但不能有效抑制房价上涨，而增强住宅市场竞争性、降低开发商垄断具有显著效果。

REAL ESTATE TAX, MARKET STRUCTURE AND HOUSING PRICE

The paper developed a partial equilibrium model of housing flow market and investigated the relationship of real estate tax and housing price in the scenarios of perfect monopoly and perfect competition.The model documented that the imposition and elevation of real estate tax would make housing price decline under different market structure.The greater the degree of monopoly was,the housing price would be higher,and the impact of real estate tax on housing price would become greater.Using the data of 33 large and median-size cities in China from 1996 through 2008,the paper found that the influence of market structure upon housing price was greater than that of real estate tax.One percent increase of real estate tax would lead to 0.03% decline of housing price,but one percent increase of Lerner index would generate 0.16% augment of housing price.Accordingly,the property tax could not curb the inflated housing price effectively in China.More importantly,the policy-makers were supposed to pay great attention on market structure to mitigate the monopoly in the housing markets.